The Future of Social Media Web Sites

Mikhail Tuknov offers up his five year prediction of social media websites. In his estimation, the massive social experiment of Web 2.0 is not the mullet of the millenium. Here's a quote:

While there is no doubt that social media sites are a genuinely groundbreaking innovation that is changing the way we communicate in many significant ways, past experience with similar Internet phenomena shows that the hyper charged atmosphere of excitement cannot last indefinitely. The industry is currently characterized by easy capital, plenty of media attention and widespread user curiosity-all of which directly boosts creativity-but all that will come to an end eventually.

This does not mean that there is no future for social media sites. On the contrary, the future is just as bright as ever and at this relatively early stage of the game, it is hard to predict just how huge the whole industry can get. What companies and investors should do however is to adapt their approach to be prepared for the changes that will inevitably come in the future.

What I find most interesting is this snippet regarding the long tail of Facebook:

The founder and chief executive of Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg, has officially stated that his despite his company’s spectacular growth, Facebook is still many years away from flotation.

OK, so math is not my forte, as evidenced in some mistakes I've made in reporting figures and numbers in my podcast. But...this past fall, Microsoft purchased a 1.6% share of the company for $240 million. So like, I just don't get what he means by that.

Read the entire article here.